A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
